Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is preparing for a crucial presidential election on October 25, with political analysts predicting that incumbent President Alassane Ouattara, 83, is likely to secure a fourth term. He has emphasized his experience as key to addressing the nation’s ongoing economic and security issues.
Ouattara will face four challengers, including two former ministers, a onetime government spokesperson, and former first lady Simone Gbagbo. However, none of them have the backing of major political parties.
The exclusion of opposition figures such as ex-president Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam has sparked criticism and raised questions about the election’s democratic integrity.
Thiam was ruled ineligible because he holds French citizenship, which disqualifies him under Ivorian law, effectively giving Ouattara a clear path to victory.
Investors are watching the election closely, drawn by Ivory Coast’s rapidly expanding economy and strong-performing international bonds.
The government has diversified its borrowing strategy, introducing a Japan-issued ESG-certified samurai bond, a regional currency bond, and Africa’s first sustainability-linked loan.
Still, memories of past election-related violence linger. The 2010 political crisis claimed thousands of lives, and the 2020 election, marked by an opposition boycott over Ouattara’s third-term bid, left at least 85 people dead.
Economic challenges continue to mount, with cocoa yields falling due to ageing trees, crop disease, climate change, and disruptions caused by small-scale gold mining.
